Metals Needed for the Energy Transformation
Optimistic scenarios are touted for electrical vehicles (EVs), needed to meet decarbonization goals adopted by Canada in April 2021. The 2020 Bloomberg chart below suggests a fourteen-fold (×14) increase in EVs to 2040. Now, reality analysis has to kick in when we see such projections. Are they realistic?
Where will the lithium come from?
There are no other EV battery technologies on the short-term horizon (5-10 years) other than Li-Ion batteries. These depend on reliable and large sources of lithium and cobalt.
Currently, lithium comes mainly from Australia, South America, and China, with a little bit here and there from Canada and a few other countries. Even if we eventually achieve 90% recovery of Li from exhausted batteries through recycling processes (expensive and chemical-based), the additional amounts of Li needed to sustain such growth are tremendous, particularly when you include the massive increase in the production of batteries for grid-scale energy storage and other demands for lithium. An example of a huge battery farm is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moss_Landing_Power_Plant
This large project at Moss Landing in California has had problems as well with a fire last summer, a reminder that there are environmental and safety risks with battery energy storage.
Depending on your assumptions, stable Li production in the world must, quite suddenly, increase by a factor of ×5 to ×10 (+500% to +1000%) in little more than a decade. Is this feasible? Are the deposits available? Will countries expedite development?
These are questions under great debate; nonetheless, it is a reasonable bet that this growth level cannot be achieved in the time frame available. Many countries, the USA and Canada are examples, have environmental assessment requirements that are rigorous and demanding.
https://minehutte.com/jurisdiction/ontario/
Some mining companies seek projects elsewhere where ore bodies may are richer, more easily accessed, or where the regulations are less stringent. Many producing countries have deep human rights issues that concern many. Yet other countries are loth to enter into agreements that serve the needs of the highly developed OEDC countries, while appearing unconcerned over issues such as local energy poverty. Equity, diversity and sustainability issues are huge in the OEDC (a club of the richest countries), and environmental concerns abound. The courts in the OEDC are leaning toward the application of all social standards in the OEDC countries to any mining project in the world.
Where will the cobalt come from?
“The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to half of the world’s known resources, and currently accounts for around 70% of global production.” https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/largest-cobalt-reserves-country/
The Democratic Republic of Congo is not well-known for human rights, equity, sustainability, and stability. But, Co projects in Canada and elsewhere are subject to the extensive requirements for environmental assessments as mentioned above, and companies tend to shy away from these regions because of the extremely long times and investments required before a major project is even approved.
And the rare earth metals?
More and more concern is being expressed in the OEDC about the stranglehold that China has attained in the rare earth metal provision industry.
Canada is starting to support some moves toward broadening the supply chain possibilities for rare earth metals. The first rare earth processing plant in Canada is being built.
The first rare earth mine is in pre-commercial production. It is a project south of Yellowknife, NT, and First Nations in the region are deeply involved.
https://www.avalonadvancedmaterials.com/nechalacho/
So – we have a conundrum and emerging issues that we must continue to address, and quickly perhaps. We want to decarbonize the fleet – and this means EVs (Li + Co + rare earths + massive recycling of batteries …). Hydrogen vehicles are a possibility, but still decades away because an integrated hydrogen economy does not yet exist. So, we need Co and Li and a handful of rare earths in unprecedented quantities, but are uncomfortable with mining, and we want human rights protected, and we advocate equity and sustainability, and we don’t want one country (China) to dominate supply, and we don’t want new mines in our backyard, and so on and so forth.
These are challenges for us, as a world society. Decarbonization of transportation is not going to be an easy path. A rocky road lies ahead.